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http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html

Based on the market depth, it looks like with $300,000 one can manipulate the price by $1. What effect would that have on the upswing? Would people buy in on the rise and leave a good opportunity to dump?

Or would it take more to manipulate the market now?

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This is a question whose response would be pure speculation and thus isn't a good candidate for Q&A format. – Stephen Gornick Nov 19 '12 at 20:12
This is a good question, doesn't depend of speculation, but pure math. The answer, however, is dynamic, and is the sum of the bid of buy side (until the delta X you consider the price changed). When I have a little time I'll answer this better, in the answer space. Thanks for Q! – Felipe Micaroni Lalli Nov 19 '12 at 20:34
@FelipeMicaroniLalli: No, that is just a crude short-term approximation. By Spending $X you execute $X worth of asks and increase the price accordingly. What happens next? Will people use the higher price as an opportunity to load more BTC into Mtgox and sell them? Will they think the rally will continue and buy more? What will the manipulator do next as part of his strategy? Will he use just trades or also verbal propaganda? – Meni Rosenfeld Nov 20 '12 at 6:07
@MeniRosenfeld, you are right, but what I said is true if the market was hypothetically "frozen" for a while. Anyway, a short-term approximation is still possible and it's easy to calculate. It's easier in exchanges house like Mercado Bitcoin (Brazil) with low volume. – Felipe Micaroni Lalli Nov 20 '12 at 12:56
I disagree this question is not constructive. It's a good question for beginners. – Felipe Micaroni Lalli Nov 23 '12 at 18:07

closed as not constructive by Stephen Gornick, ThePiachu, Serith, David Schwartz♦ Nov 21 '12 at 18:27

As it currently stands, this question is not a good fit for our Q&A format. We expect answers to be supported by facts, references, or specific expertise, but this question will likely solicit debate, arguments, polling, or extended discussion. If you feel that this question can be improved and possibly reopened, see the FAQ for guidance.

1 Answer

up vote -4 down vote

many billions, me thinks. say some gov. starts buying, to get rid of nasty bitcoin. say they are halfway, 5mio btc, and price is up to whatever, $100 or so. The strong hands, still holding their btc, will see what is tried and hang on. At least I would, till a price of a few thousand $ per btc. So to shake the tree from the last few million bitcoin, some billions will be needed, I guess. Then the gov recognizes the've failed and start selling. Prices plummet and the strong hands sell quickly b/c they recognise they've overplayed their hand. The latest sellers before the turndown are happy and buy back their btc or keep their fiat.

From a personal gain standpoint, I would welcome such an attempt by a gov. I would take the ride with half of my btc's.

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my above scenario was for an attempt by TPTB to try and buy all bitcoins, not to just maniplate the price a bit. -henq – henq Nov 19 '12 at 23:50

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