Estimates have been thrown around a lot recently as to the year in which the last Bitcoin will be mined- where are these estimates coming from? Could someone send me to the relevant code?

up vote 23 down vote accepted

The estimate is 2140 based on the block reward halving frequency of four years. According to math and knowledge that there are 32 halving events, in 2136, the block reward will yield 0.00000168 BTC per day, which is 0.00000042 BTC per block. That's 42 satoshis.

It's arguable that there could be one additional halving, to a block reward of 0.00000021 BTC, but that would require a major protocol modification since the number of Bitcoin would then exceed 21 million. Additionally, to go past that, there'd have to be a protocol modification to extend divisibility past eight decimal places. It is far, far to early to worry about either of these, because we're more than a century away from this problem.

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    What's the variance of the estimate of 2140? Is it plus minus 2 years, 3 years? – Pacerier May 23 '14 at 16:10
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    The time between blocks is currently 8.57 minutes. That's about 9% faster than the 10 minutes-per-block goal that puts the final block mined in 2140. The time-betwee-blocks varies pretty widely. I can't find a graph of it, unfortunately. I've see it as low as 6 minutes, and as high as 14 in the last few months. – Colin Dean May 26 '14 at 17:18
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    Why does the page you link me shows "time between blocks = 10.00 mins"? Where did you get 8.57? – Pacerier May 27 '14 at 14:08
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    That value changes constantly. – Colin Dean May 28 '14 at 14:41
  • Any idea how is that number calculated? – Pacerier May 29 '14 at 9:22

Under the assumption that halvings will occur every four years, the final block that creates new bitcoins would occur in 2140.

The "halving" occurring with block 6,930,000 would then push the reward below 1 satoshi, thus no block reward would be paid out anymore.

You can find a table with the respective calculations here: Bitcoin Reward Schedule

Really, the mining reward might be too little to pay for mining efforts much earlier: already in 2036 99% of the bitcoins will be in circulation, in 2048 it will be 99.9%.

As per considering mining of any cryptocurrency is calculated by increasing hash rate and difficulty and decreasing block rewards. So time prediction of final block mining is 2145.

  • I think you're off by one halving, and you seem to be off one year. You also don't explain how you arrived at that figure, so I don't find your answer useful. – Murch Apr 2 '16 at 22:40

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