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Is the likelihood of correctly guessing a private key with unspent coins increasing due to:

  1. More addresses being used resulting in more private keys with unspent coins (i.e. higher chance that a random private key might have coins).
  2. The fact lots of people use deterministic wallets (i.e. one could discount billions of deterministically generated private keys if the first 20 are empty).

Is this significant in terms of security?

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It's increasing from approximately zero to approximately zero.

Since the starting seed of HD wallets is essentially random, I don't think this helps.

This isn't significant.

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No, not significantly.

  1. No, the key space is literally 67 magnitudes larger than the count of all addresses used so far.
  2. There is no mechanism that ensures that no one reuses another user's key except the vastness of the key space, so just because keys are part of some keychain doesn't prevent that they aren't part of another. Discounting billions of addresses gets you nowhere.

There are 115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,852,837,564,279,074,904,382,605,163,141,518,161,494,336 possible private keys. Compare that to fewer than 1B addresses ever used and about 75.7M UTXOs.

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