I have read that long term we expect that the percentage of blocks mined to be forever converging to the percentage of hashpower possessed by the miner. This means if a particular miner has 20% of the total hashpower amongst miners, over time we expect to see the percent of blocks they mine converge to 20% of blocks.
Has any analysis been done to see if the data supports what we expect to see? Obviously it is complicated by mining pools, miners entering and leaving the network, and rig upgrades, but we will ignore these factors. Here is some clarification questions that shed light on why I am curious:
I believe I understand that all miners are working on the same block number, but possibly with different transactions bundled in the respective block they are working on. Ok, for simplicity lets assume there are 4 miners -
Miner1 with 35% hashpower
Miner2 with 30% hashpower
Miner3 with 25% hashpower
Miner4 with 10% hashpower
Suppose mempool is ripe with transactions and block number 5 was just succesfully mined by Miner1. Miner2 was really close to mining their block when Miner1 finished (perhaps within 10 increments of a nonce). Now it is time to start on block number 6. Does everyone have to start over from square one by grabbing transactions from mempool and starting to hash? Or do the other miners who didn't win get to continue the work they have already done (10 more hashes for miner2). If the former, I don't see how miners with smaller %'s of power ever mine any blocks at all. If the latter, then I see how the speed at which you mine blocks will be determined by your hashrate, but I am curious if it will actually converge to their percentage of power. I am also curious, if they "continue their work" what happens to the transactions in their block that may have been shared with the ones in block number 5?
I am especially curious about this same question in the PoS set-up but will wait and post in a seperate question later.
I also believe I understand that mining is so fast now “incrementing the nonce” is kind of nonsense since all nonce values can be tried in an instant and then the miner needs to grab new transactions and try again.