How many shares need to be processed on average before a block is found?
I know that "luck" can be a huge factor which is why it's not quite as simple as that.
I ask because I'm starting my own pool (www.btcpoolman.com). I only have three people on it at the moment, but we've mined about 100K shares in the past week or so. Assuming I sustain this, how long will it be before I will get a block?
I found http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ yesterday, which says that it'll take one year and 138 days to find a block based on 1.2 GHash/s (which is roughly what I do when soloing).
Failing that, what should I do if I'm currently mining at the above rate?