What are the future projections for fees per byte in satoshis if the BTC becomes the global settlement layer? and is this number increasing over time as the block subsidies are decreasing and what are the future projections, taking into account block space limitations. Put in another way: what is the minimum BTC value that will be cost effective as a transaction if the block space limits transcation on the Bitcoin network to around 200 million transaction per year?

1 Answer 1


Nobody can answer this question accurately. Even forgoing the problem of being able to predict the state of an economy years into the future, there is a question of what portion of those transactions are on L1 vs L2. If 100% of them are on lightning, there would be no change in L1 fees.

The minimum BTC value is the minimum miners will accept. Nobody knows that answer except those mining. What is cost effective for a user? A miner? These are not questions with definitive answers.

  • Thanks. I listerned to a guy called Bob burnett, who is I gather a computer expert. He said it could become cost prohibited to send 0.1 BTC over the network in the future because of block space constraints causing high fees. This answer did not seem right to me so I wanted help in finding some future projections for fees. In an idea scenario there must be a good estimation to answer this question. It does not have to be accurate, just take in some of the many factors and considerations. Commented Oct 2, 2023 at 15:53
  • Idk who Bob Burnett is but anybody who says they can make any sort of even ballpark accurate estimate of this is selling a pipe dream at best. Lightning transactions are free or extremely low fee. This is where the vast majority of transactions will live in the future. The Bitcoin L1 will provide security but not storage of transaction history (whereas a classic L1 transaction has both) except one transaction to open a channel and one to close it. Inside that channel an infinite number of transactions can occur. This opens up more space in the L1 chain to store that security information.
    – Mr. T
    Commented Oct 3, 2023 at 1:48

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