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What percentage of Bitcoin transaction volume is due to people actually buying stuff ("goods") versus between traders, investors and speculators?

Of the "goods" volume, what percentage is for illicit purposes (drugs, etc.)?

Are these percentages relevant to the future success of Bitcoin?

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    The pseudonymous nature of Bitcoin is such that this question is very difficult to answer. How would you attempt to answer it? – Greg Hewgill Feb 12 '14 at 21:28
  • BTC China made a recent survey amongst their users and share results in conferences, so there's probably lots of reporting bias and I don't even remember if their numbers were users or share of exchange trade volume, or what exactly the numbers were. But my vague take-away impression was: 5% is for purchasing rather than speculation or investment. – pyramids Feb 13 '14 at 6:03
  • I think this is a valid question, just hard to answer as I don't think it is possible to measure directly. – Murch Feb 13 '14 at 14:45
  • It's also hard to answer just because of the nature of money. I own BTC. I don't know whether I eventually use that to buy something, convert it back into my native fiat currency, convert it into a different crypto currency, or convert it into a different fiat. What would the transaction to buy those BTC be categorized as? – David Ogren Feb 13 '14 at 15:52
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It's been estimated (with many assumptions) to be somewhere around 1-4% of the total trade volume. This seems bad until you learn that the speculation market for USD is $5 trillion a day.

Some of the information contained in this post requires additional references. Please edit to add citations to reliable sources that support the assertions made here. Unsourced material may be disputed or deleted.

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    Hello Garrik, welcome to Bitcoin.SE. Could you please provide a source for your figures? You speak of many assumptions, so I think that a longer explanation would be useful to substantiate your answer. – Murch Jun 22 '17 at 1:51

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