Gavin Andresen said the best time to launch the block size increase update / hard fork would be the next reward halving (when mining discovery bounty would go from 25btc to 12.5btc). Why has halving anything to do with increasing odds of success of a hard fork?
Source: Gaving Andersen said that at the Dev Core conference London on April 19th in his keynote "Why we need a bigger chain". There was a live broadcast of the event but I can't find a video link.