When does the 2016 halving happen? Is it a predicted date or could it be when network load is achieved?
The first block with the halved block subsidy is
420,000. However, blocks are discovered in a random process – whereas the protocol aims to have blocks found approximately every ten minutes, in effect blocks are currently found about every 8.94 minutes. Therefore, one can only estimate the precise arrival of the Halving:
- thehalvening.com estimates 2016-07-10 – 10:24 UTC
- bitcoinclock.com estimates 2016-07-10 – 05:39 UTC
- bitcoinblockhalf.com estimates 2016-07-10 – 10:10 UTC
It's not clear from the sites whether they rely on the current measured block interval or the theoretical ten minutes for their estimates. So far, it seems to me that the time has mostly been overestimated, earlier predictions were for later in July.
It seems therefore likely to me that the halving will occur on the 8th, 9th or the 10th of July. Naturally, any predictions will increase in accuracy as the halving draws nearer.
The 2016 halving, from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC, happened on: Saturday July 9 2016 16:46:13 UTC.
The reward was halved in:
The exact time of the halving will be unknown until it happens.
The most significant factor in the uncertainty is the rate at which new hashrate will enter the network. If the hashrate increases, the halving will be sooner.
Statistical variance also plays a factor.
My paper Predicting Block Halving Party Times discusses some of the methods used to predict the time in advance.
Websites such as http://www.thehalvening.com/ give a rough estimate, which stands at July 10, 10:20 GMT at the time of this writing. New hashrate is likely to push this forward to July 8-9.
Approximately 10 Jul 2016 13:00:33.
The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 coins.
Total Bitcoins in circulation: 15,649,450
Total Bitcoins to ever be produced: 21,000,000
Percentage of total Bitcoins mined: 74.52%
Total Bitcoins left to mine: 5,350,550
Total Bitcoins left to mine until next blockhalf: 100,550
Bitcoin price (USD): $644.48
Market capitilzation (USD): $10,085,757,536.00
Bitcoins generated per day: 3,600
Bitcoin inflation rate per annum: 8.76%
Bitcoin inflation rate per annum at next block halving event: 4.09%
Bitcoin inflation per day (USD): $2,320,128
Bitcoin inflation until next blockhalf event based on current price (USD): $64,802,464
Total blocks: 415,978
Blocks until mining reward is halved: 4,022
Approximate block generation time: 10.00 minutes
Approximate blocks generated per day: 144
Hash rate: 1.47 Exahashes/s
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