8

When does the 2016 halving happen? Is it a predicted date or could it be when network load is achieved?

7

The first block with the halved block subsidy is 420,000. However, blocks are discovered in a random process – whereas the protocol aims to have blocks found approximately every ten minutes, in effect blocks are currently found about every 8.94 minutes. Therefore, one can only estimate the precise arrival of the Halving:

It's not clear from the sites whether they rely on the current measured block interval or the theoretical ten minutes for their estimates. So far, it seems to me that the time has mostly been overestimated, earlier predictions were for later in July.

It seems therefore likely to me that the halving will occur on the 8th, 9th or the 10th of July. Naturally, any predictions will increase in accuracy as the halving draws nearer.

  • Note: In the past three days, the estimates on all three sites have adjusted to between 6 and 20 minutes earlier. Early morning hours of 10th of July seem the best bet to me. – Murch Jun 17 '16 at 15:28
4

There is no precise time and date but July 10th or 11th is expected. The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. The first time (block 210,000) the reward fell from 50 to 25 BTC. On block 420,000 it will fall from 25 to `12.5 btc

3

The 2016 halving, from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC, happened on: Saturday July 9 2016 16:46:13 UTC.

The reward was halved in:

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1

The exact time of the halving will be unknown until it happens.

The most significant factor in the uncertainty is the rate at which new hashrate will enter the network. If the hashrate increases, the halving will be sooner.

Statistical variance also plays a factor.

My paper Predicting Block Halving Party Times discusses some of the methods used to predict the time in advance.

Websites such as http://www.thehalvening.com/ give a rough estimate, which stands at July 10, 10:20 GMT at the time of this writing. New hashrate is likely to push this forward to July 8-9.

-2

Approximately 10 Jul 2016 13:00:33.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 coins.

Total Bitcoins in circulation: 15,649,450

Total Bitcoins to ever be produced: 21,000,000

Percentage of total Bitcoins mined: 74.52%

Total Bitcoins left to mine: 5,350,550

Total Bitcoins left to mine until next blockhalf: 100,550

Bitcoin price (USD): $644.48

Market capitilzation (USD): $10,085,757,536.00

Bitcoins generated per day: 3,600

Bitcoin inflation rate per annum: 8.76%

Bitcoin inflation rate per annum at next block halving event: 4.09%

Bitcoin inflation per day (USD): $2,320,128

Bitcoin inflation until next blockhalf event based on current price (USD): $64,802,464

Total blocks: 415,978

Blocks until mining reward is halved: 4,022

Approximate block generation time: 10.00 minutes

Approximate blocks generated per day: 144

Difficulty: 196,061,423,940

Hash rate: 1.47 Exahashes/s

Keep up-to-date here:-

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

We're looking for long answers that provide some explanation and context. Don't just give a one-line answer; explain why your answer is right, ideally with citations. Answers that don't include explanations may be removed.

  • Finding a link and copying the complete content of that site is neither useful nor appropriate. Please either summarize or select relevant data, otherwise you provide no value over the link. – Murch Jun 15 '16 at 9:20

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