SegWit does not need to utilized by all (or even most) nodes in order to be used safely, but it must be adopted by almost all miners in order to successfully minimize or virtually eliminate the risk of forks or double spends after SegWit activation.
My understanding is that (non mining) nodes that have not activated SegWit, will still consider SegWit transactions valid (because they see no requirement for a signature). However, if some miners includes SegWit transaction(s) in a block that other (non SegWit) mining node(s) reject double spends or forks could theoretically occur. Is that understanding correct?
With this risk in mind, exactly how was the 95% miner adoption level selected? Are there any available statistical simulations that estimate the chances of double spends or forks at a threshold more or less than 95%?