Technical analysis is important, but right now I think that one should not rely exclusively on chart analysis and indicators to predict Bitcoin's price movement. For example, at the end of July and mid-August some indicators, such as MACD or RSI, clearly showed a trend inversion that did not happen.
One of Bitcoin's unique features is the mining system and I think that, right now, this plays an important role in price analysis. After Bitcoin hit $30 in July, many people invested in mining rigs and difficulty rose a lot. Those people are looking forward to get their investment back and, since Bitcoin is extremely infalctionary right now (50 new coins every 10 minutes), there is a big selling force at the markets.
If miners sell 30 coins out of each block, we need around 1 million dollars per month to keep the price at $5.
I also believe that the $30 spike was caused by media exposure. Such a small market can be easily manipulated by a few serious investors.
- Use Technical Analysis carefully.
- Consider the number of coins per block and the money invested by miners
- Keep an eye for important news that may attract new investors to the market
To finish, here is one stock behaviour that I could identify: the dead cat bounce.
A dead cat bounce is a trading term used to define when a stock in a
severe decline has a sharp bounce off the lows.