I'm looking for research papers that cover the impact Bitcoin may have on Central Banking, interest rates, velocity of money, and their reserve.
What research papers or information from thought leaders exists w.r.t Bitcoin's impact on economic matters?
I don't have a list or a wiki listing all the relevant documents, but the European Central Bank produced this document which covers several types of money schemes including Bitcoin.
Perhaps some lessons learned, and advice from this document can encourage adoption of Bitcoin.
The Velocity and Dormancy of Bitcoin. It contains important observations and links to a research paper.
See also the comment I added to the bottom of that blog article, which should appear if the owner of that blog accepts my comment, which is quoted below.
You assume that only “change” needs to be removed from the total of transactions when computing the velocity. Transfers to self in and out of the system also must be removed, because only the fee in money transfers is part of the GDP when the transfer is not to another person for a real good or service. Ditto your section making the erroneous claim that transfers in bitcoins external to the main database should be factored into the velocity without regard to whether they are transfers to pay for a good or service.
I find it unfathomable that every Bitcoin owner is spending his entire balance 7 times every quarter. This would require he has the means to receive bitcoins 7 times every quarter from someone else paying for goods and services. Such a Bitcoin economy does not exist.
If data is analyzed more deeply, perhaps with the aid of data from the FX services, I am confident that vast majority of transactions would be transfers buying in and cashing out of Bitcoin, or moving money to self across borders and through exchange vehicles such as real estate, etc. There are not that many merchants accepting Bitcoin. It is fathomable that there might be a significant quantity of illicit or black market transfers, since Bitcoin aids anonymity. However, even if so, such markets can not likely scale to velocity of fiat for the mainstream population. Also FinCEN is preparing to crack down on this market sector.
As you noted, the problem with computing dormancy in Bitcoin is there is no way to know which are transfers to self. Perhaps one could make the reasonable assumption that large value transactions that paid a significant transaction fee are not likely transfers to self, since one would be motivated in that case to likely tradeoff speed of verification for cost.
Since FinCEN will be regulating transfers (to self or other party), but not transactions in exchange for goods and services, users do not have an incentive to reveal the data we need.
So perhaps the only metric that is reliable is your weighted-average of dormancy relative to itself, not as an indication of relative velocity to those computed with GDP. I think that may have been your intended point, but IMO you did not elucidate it.
Your weighted-average of dormancy is not Bitcoin Days Destroyed— the latter weights the past dormancy of coins that have been transferred over any chosen period, whereas yours is a snapshot of the current dormancy of coins. The histogram of the percentage of Days Destroyed graphs distribution of dormancy over the measured period.
Update: I expounded on why the 7 velocity is not likely at this time for Bitcoin.
