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I need to analyse unconfirmed transactions and I'm interested in knowing what is the probability for a given unconfirmed transactions to be confirmed.

Depending on the model, I see two solutions:

  • checking for a relatively long period of time how many transactions had been submitted and checking how many had been confirmed.
  • searching pattern behavior in the structure of a transaction that will lead to a rejection.
  • Ask me to flood the network with transactions which will never confirm and you will get ANY digits in your statistics :) – amaclin Oct 10 '17 at 16:04
  • That's exactly my point, flooding has a very specific behavior pattern that can be detected often. – user61488 Oct 11 '17 at 8:47
  • If you are asking this question this means that you will not be able to detect my flood transactions from regular ones :) ok, we can continue the conversation (if you are interested in experiment) via email (in my profile) – amaclin Oct 11 '17 at 9:16
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For a transaction to be included in a block, the probability is related to the fee that transaction pays to the miner (higher fee = more likely) and varies over time based on demand of block space (more congested = higher fee needed). It's also unpredictable because miners can choose whatever transactions they want to, doesn't always have to be the x highest fees.

Here's some stats on current fee vs confirmation time estimations: https://bitcoinfees.21.co

  • Thanks for your answer. My question wasn't clear enough I meant statistically how many unconfirmed transactions are rejected? Ive updated my answer. – user61488 Oct 10 '17 at 15:59

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