Why did miners/pools choose the longest chain for continuing it?
Because with this strategy they have the highest expected bitcoin reward.
The expected bitcoin reward is
(new generated bitcoin (b) + transaction fees (t)) * probability (p) the block will not become orphaned.
b + t is clearly dominated by
b is kind of constant, today miners maximize
p by mining for the longest blockchain. But what about the days when
b gets close to
0? Then, right after a completed block,
0. Thus, a clever miner should ignore the latest block, since even with a small
p he will end up with a higher expected reward.
But once miners become aware of transaction fees and will not build on the longest chain this could cause serious trouble? Did I forget something or are these assumptions right?