5

I've read in some places that the next halving event will be on 2016. How can this be estimated?

9

The Bitcoin reward schedule follows a predetermined pattern, see Controlled supply from the Bitcoin wiki.

The next reward drop will happen at block number 420000. The current block number at the time of writing this answer is 318662. There are about 101338 blocks remaining. At approximately 10 minutes per block, there are approximately 1008 blocks per week, and 101338 divided by 1008 is about 100.5. So you can expect the next reward drop approximately 100 weeks from now, or around August 2016.

The http://bitcoinclock.com site does this calculation for you and provides an estimate right at the top. At the time of writing this answer, it says:

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-05 12:47:44 UTC (100 weeks, 3 days, 17 hours, 40 minutes)

  • you just talked about the next one, should I assume that the next after the one in 2016 will be at block 84,000? – knocte Sep 1 '14 at 23:36
  • You only asked about the next one. :) There is a halving event every 210000 blocks (on average, about every 4 years). The next one after 420000 happens at block 630000. – Greg Hewgill Sep 1 '14 at 23:37
  • I did not, I spoke in plural – knocte Sep 1 '14 at 23:39
6

On average, since the creation of Bitcoin, a new block has been created every 9 minutes and 20 seconds. This is 7% faster than the correct time of 10 minutes. Taking that into account, I predict that the next one will be at Jun 20, 2016.

  • that's really interesting. Do we know why? – nilskp Feb 10 '15 at 19:03
  • 1
    Yes. Every time the network hash rate increases, blocks are mined slightly faster until the next difficulty adjustment. Since the hash rate just keeps on increasing, the blocks keep on coming faster than scheduled. – Minthos Dec 1 '15 at 22:40
  • @Murch It's a touch early. I think that's because the hashrate has not increased as quickly after the low-hanging fruit (FPGA's, ASIC's) was gone. – Nick ODell Jun 28 '16 at 2:45
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Reward-Drop ETA date: 2016-07-09 16:44

Date extracted from: https://bitcoin.halving.info/

The halving date is dynamic, each 210.000 mined blocks a halving event occurs.

Math operation:

(Blocks for halving - Actual total mined block ) * Time for block generation

The next halving event occurs when the Bitcoin network reaches a total amount of 420,000 mined blocks.

The aproximate time between blocks is 9.47 minutes

So:

(420,000 - x) * 9.47 = Time until next halving event in minutes

0

Chiming in to confirm that halving is approaching faster than scheduled - it has been 30 days since @Greg_Hewgill posted the estimate from Bitcoinclock. Currently it displays:

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-02 15:26:20 UTC (96 weeks, 8 hours, 40 minutes)

In the last 30 days, Bitcoinclock has reduced its estimated date until next halving by 3 days / 10%.

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