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So, I'm trying out http://cex.io, a cloud based hash market. They use the pool http://ghash.io which uses "PPLNS" for distribution of funds(?)

Given that I can see how much total hashing power is in runs, and I can see how much hashing power I am contributing to each run, how can I calculate an average rate of BTC I will get?

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  • Is your question, "How can I convert from total hashes done (say in gigahashes) to the BTC that should have been earned?"
    – David Schwartz
    Commented Dec 6, 2013 at 18:19

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To go from GH/sec to BTC/day, use this:

BTC/day = GH/sec * 1,000 * 25 * 24 * 3,600 / 2^32 / difficulty(in millions)
Because: the block reward is currently 25, there are 24 hours in a day, 3600 seconds in an hour, and the base share difficulty is 2^32.

So 100GH/s, at the current difficulty of 707 million will yield:
100 * 1,000 * 25 * 24 * 3600 / 2^32 / 707.41 = .0711 BTC/day

Note that this assumes no pool fees and no variance at all. Of course, the difficulty is increasing so the yield will drop.

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